What happened to the Shanahan/McVay tree?
For the first time since 2017, no Shanahan/McVay branch made a conference championship. What happened?
For the first time since 2017 when Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan were rookie head coaches, a direct branch of the offense, as in an offense coordinated by Shanahan, McVay, or someone who worked directly under them, has failed to make either conference championship game. For reference, here are the appearances since:
2018: Rams
2019: 49ers & Packers
2020: Packers
2021: Rams, 49ers, Bengals
2022: 49ers, Bengals
2023: 49ers
This week, we’re going to take a look at why. For starters, I don’t think it’s because the offense has been “figured out.” Yes, defenses changed as a result of the late 2010s when Shanahan and McVay were torching the static Cover 3 defenses copying the Legion of Boom, but this offense has adapted too. First, it was the Fangio defense that was the “Shanahan/McVay killer.” Most recently, it has been Mike McDonald’s defense. I believe that as much as anything is why he got the Seahawks job - the idea that he could shut down the two best teams in the division would theoretically give the Seahawks a natural road to the playoffs with a competent offense. In three games against Shanahan and McVay’s healthy starters (McVay rested starters against them in Week 18 this season), his defense gave up a combined 89 points, and McDonald went 1-2 in those games. Current defensive structures don’t allow for the explosive passing concepts that really made this offense famous in the late 2010s, but big plays and scoring are down league-wide, not just within this system. As an analytics truther myself, I understand and agree with how defense is being played today: bend but don’t break, and prevent explosive plays. If a single explosive play on an offensive drive triples the scoring rate of the offense, why should a defense not do everything in their power to prevent them? Every single snap for the offense is a chance that something could go wrong: a fumbled snap, a missed block, a holding penalty or false start, the list could go on, and any one of those happening craters an offense’s probability of scoring. It can also be difficult to call those long, 10-12-15 play drives consistently, and it’s easy to feel the need for every playcall to be perfect in such situations. Overall, defenses have simply gotten better across the board, not just specific to this offense.
Most every team we covered this season had off-season and pre-season expectations of making a deep playoff run. The Vikings were the least-favored, being expected to finish last in their division. The Dolphins and Rams were probably the next-least favored, but they were both still generally expected to at least make the playoffs. Meanwhile, CJ Stroud’s historic rookie year, the emergence of Jordan Love, and the starpower of the 49ers set astronomical expectations for those teams. For the rest of the article, we’ll go team-by-team and analyze the specific issues they had this season and create an outlook for next season.
49ERS
The pre-season expectation for the 49ers was near the top of the league. They were heavily favored to win the division and a popular pick to at least appear in the Super Bowl, if not win it. Ultimately, injuries took a massive toll on this roster, starting with the training camp injury of Christian McCaffrey that never seemed to get better. Brandon Aiyuk, Nick Bosa, Talanoa Hufanga, Dre Greenlaw, and Trent Williams are widely considered some of the top players at their positions in the league, and each missed a significant amount of time.
What about next year? Could this be San Francisco’s version of the 2022 post-Super Bowl “collapse” of the Rams? I don’t think so. I think this one has a bit of staying power. The 49ers have just over $50MM in cap space as of right now, but they have a few star players about to hit the free agent market:
Dre Greenlaw
Talanoa Hufanga
Javon Hargrave
Charvarious Ward
Aaron Banks
Sure, they could theoretically bring back all these players by keeping a low first-year cap number, but with a looming big money contract to Brock Purdy, how much money do you realistically want to push down the road? I think Deebo is a likely cap casualty with the high draft pick of Ricky Pearsall and the emergence of Jauan Jennings as a capable WR3, but a top-heavy roster full of players that have injury histories and a QB that has yet to demonstrate that he can succeed without a cast of all-stars would not be my preferred method of roster-building.
The difference with these 49ers and the 2022 Rams, in my opinion, was that the Rams dealt more with a cluster injury on the OL, injuries to superstar players that rarely ever missed games in Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, and they have a QB in Stafford who has proven he can elevate those around him.
DOLPHINS
I think the explanation for the Dolphins is much more simple: they are going to live and die by Tua Tagovailoa. They lost to the Colts and Titans early in the season without him, and I wouldn’t have been surprised if they were able to pull off a win in Seattle with a healthy Tua either. He plays such an important role as the point guard in their quick strike offense, and it’s baffling to me the lack of investment the front office has in backing him up with knowledge of his injury history. After this season and the thought of retirement after that concussion, I do expect that to change slightly. Because his contract is so expensive and will just be starting to kick in, I wouldn’t be surprised if they go more of the day 2 draft pick QB route to get a talented player for cheap as opposed to spending (relatively) big for a backup QB like Jimmy Garoppolo with an eye on having a potential future QB in the event of a career-ending injury for Tua, but if Tua stays healthy, then they have a (potentially) talented and cheap backup for the duration of his contract.
I do think they have a tough road to the playoffs moving forward, however. Barring injury to Josh Allen, I don’t see them winning the division, even if Bills OC Joe Brady gets a head coaching job. Then you look to the wildcard, and it’s tough to see the Chargers or the Broncos getting worse. This is definitely not to say the can’t make it. I think they will, as it’s well documented how much the playoff teams change every year. I just believe that any time your best realistic hope of making the playoffs is the wild card, it’s a tough/uncertain road.
VIKINGS
The biggest issue for the Vikings in their pursuit of post-season success is also the biggest question they have had as a franchise since about November…what do they do with Sam Darnold? Up until about 12 days ago, I don’t know how they let him leave the building. Outside of Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence, and Caleb Williams, I don’t really think there have been any QBs drafted over the last 12 years or so that you can realistically expect to play better than Darnold did this year. I also believe that in this year’s draft class, JJ McCarthy would be QB1. If both of those things are true, you could re-sign Darnold, get a top 10 pick (maybe top 5) for McCarthy, and be in an incredible spot as a franchise.
And then it happened - the moment every sportscaster has been waiting for all season long. Sam Darnold collapsed in some of the brightest moments in franchise history. With the #1 seed on the line in Week 18, Darnold was missing routine throws, and in the Wild Card game, he was absolutely pummeled by the Rams’ young defensive front.
After such a meltdown, you have to see what you have in the #10 overall pick from just the year prior. Can he win you 14 regular season games? In the NFC North? Maybe not next season, but it’s worth it to start getting him the experience. You also won’t have every single fan of the franchise have their excitement after a win in the regular season follow it up with thinking it doesn’t matter until it happens in the playoffs. Had Darnold played better against the Rams, maybe we’re not having this discussion. Just chalk it up to a bad game in Detroit. But two games, in a row, in the two biggest games of the year and Darnold’s career to that point, melting down on that magnitude is unacceptable when determining whether to give the keys to the franchise to you or not.
Ultimately, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Vikings were one of the teams that makes the playoffs this year and doesn’t next year. I love KOC, and I think he is an absolute top-flight football coach. If Sean McVay couldn’t be my team’s HC, I would want KOC. I just think they’re in the best division in football, and assuming they turn to McCarthy, they’re the only team I see moving backward at all. It might only be moving back an inch, but that is a pretty big inch when you take into account the rest of the division, which we will with the Packers.
PACKERS
The Packers were one of my favorite teams to watch this season and one that I am looking to break down even more this off-season (so stay tuned!). They had two major issues from what I could see this season. One of which should be fixed, and another which isn’t totally up to them.
The first issue they had was injuries. All-Pro CB Jaire Alexander was at the top of that list, but they also dealt with cluster injuries at WR and OL at various points in the year, and a little of both right at the very end.
The issue they can’t fix is that they played in the NFL’s best division this year. I mentioned the Vikings above. The Lions are in a situation adjacent to the Vikings in that they’ve lost both coordinators. That didn’t work out well for the Eagles when they lost Steichen and Gannon after their Super Bowl loss two years ago. I could see either/both of these teams being the teams that contribute to the statistic of averaging about 4 teams every year that miss the playoffs after making it the year prior. I don’t think they plummet to the worst of the league, but going 9-8 and missing the playoffs on a tiebreaker would definitely feel like falling short for both teams after winning 14+ games each this season. So how does the division impact the Packers? I am 100% drinking the Ben Johnson + Caleb Williams kool-aid. I think the Bears’ brass has finally paired a stud QB with an offensive HC, and they will get it right. I don’t know that they go to Super Bowl contention right away, but going 9-8/10-7 with wins over the right teams can be a Wild Card spot.
Ultimately, I think the Packers have the best chance out of any team in the division to be back in the playoffs. They also had the unlucky draw in the first round of playing the Eagles.
TEXANS
I think the Texans need to have only one goal this off-season that gets accomplished no matter what: completely overhaul and upgrade the interior of the OL. They have an incredible pass rush duo with Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson paired with a top 5 CB in Derek Stingley Jr, so the defense will be toward the top of the league. They have to do a better job of protecting Stroud to allow him to get back to his rookie year form. The defense will be top 10, but it’s a QB-driven league. There is also good news and bad news for the Texans.
Good news: the division is one of the weakest in football. With an improved OL, they should win it handily, regardless of how intrigued I am by Liam Coen pairing up with Trevor Lawrence and some of the offensive pieces there and any kind of improvement Steichen can get out of Anthony Richardson. If they fix the OL, those teams shouldn’t matter, and Tennessee is way more than a #1 overall pick away from even being in the conversation.
Bad news: even if you fix the OL and CJ absolutely balls out, he is still at best the 5th best QB in the conference behind Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, and Lamar. You can’t possible make it to the conference championship without beating at least one of those QBs. It’s not impossible. I think if the Chiefs do 3 peat, it might be hard for Kelce to come back with the comments he has made in the past about feeling every surgery he’s ever had every time he gets hit, seeing how happy it seems his brother Jason has been in his first year of retirement, and maybe want to marry and follow Taylor Swift around the world. He holds almost every post-season receiving record, and the ones he doesn’t are owned by Jerry Rice and are likely out of reach, so with all of that to look forward to in retirement, it might be too enticing with capping off a career in the NFL’s first ever 3 peat. The Chiefs also have ridden a lot of young stars on the road to this quest that will be coming up for contracts, and there’s only so much money to go around. That’s the Chiefs. I don’t see the Bills going anywhere. This was supposed to be their down year, and that has obviously not been the case. The Ravens and Bengals had very different reasons for not making it this far, but the talents they have at QB are all-time players. Ultimately for the Texans, it’s a QB-driven league, and the AFC is loaded with them. That didn’t even mention Herbert’s second year under Harbaugh in which Ladd McConkey will have experience and surely they bring in another veteran WR or another season of Sean Payton developing Bo Nix. Making it to the conference championship in the AFC is a very difficult task.
Bottom line: I think the Texans end up in a similar place as this year: division winners that can win a wild card game, but not likely a divisional game.
RAMS
I saved the team that was closest to the Championship round for last. When Puka caught that ball on the sideline, I thought we had it, but a literal rookie mistake left future All Pro DT Jalen Carter unblocked on third down for a sack. With no timeouts on 4th down and a running clock, they couldn’t spike it or call timeout, so they had to no huddle into what would be the last play of the season. In so many ways, it feels like they should be playing this weekend. Watching that game, they outplayed the Eagles on so many snaps. Nick Saban once said something to the effect that a football game is decided on about 6 plays over the course of a game. You don’t know what plays they will be beforehand, but about 6 plays are going to decide the fate of the game. While the Rams might have outplayed the Eagles on most snaps, the Eagles won those 6 plays. Bad run fits allowing monster runs by Saquon and two fumbles were absolutely killer.
But unlike the other teams we’ve discussed, the Rams really overcame this season’s issues already after starting 1-4. I also think they have a good shot to be back in the playoffs next season, assuming Stafford is back (which we’ll discuss more in a minute). I don’t think the 49ers as of right now can be considered division contenders next season with all of the question marks they have, and until the Cardinals show me they can play good football after about Halloween, I’m just not going to buy into it. The only other potential wrench in the division then is the Seahawks, who the Rams needed a 5th tiebreaker to get in over this season already. The thing with the Seahawks is I already feel like the coaching staff is getting every ounce of talent out of their players. I don’t think there is a ton of room for improvement, and I don’t think there are any significant additions for them to make this off-season that would move the needle. I think with a good off-season and another year for Chris Shula and his young defense to grow, the Rams should stay on top of the NFC West.
Now what would that good off-season look like? It starts with keeping Matt Stafford. I think some of the talk about his retirement has been overblown from that post-game video at his locker. He said he felt like he was still playing some of his best ball, and elite players that still have success don’t like going out when they still feel they can perform, and the tape absolutely shows he can. The way he picked apart Brian Flores’s defense in the Wild Card game was absolute cinema, and outside of his fumble against the Eagles, I thought he played a near-flawless game then too, all on the back of another incredible season from him in horns. I think he threw something like less than 10 interceptions since around the middle of September. He did have a contract issue last off-season, though. As it was resolved, both sides essentially said they were going to go year-to-year together as long as it made sense. I don’t have any inside information at all about what either side deems as “making sense,” but I know that there aren’t many teams that are considered “just a QB away,” and the ones that are don’t have Sean McVay as their head coach. I also don’t think there is any QB even remotely close to potentially available that the Rams could imagine gives them a better chance to make a run in 2025 than Stafford. I think all signs point to 2025 being a last dance of sorts, one more year together then Stafford retiring a Ram.
The other big question of the off-season for the Rams is the tenure of Cooper Kupp. I am much less optimistic about his return. There were plenty of rumors about his departure at the trade deadline, he missed a significant chunk of games for the third season in a row, and he was barely a factor for the last month of the season. I think at a lower cap number, he could still provide a lot of value to this team, but it’s clear that Puka is Stafford’s go-to-guy now.
I do think the Rams need to return the off-season focus to the offense. The majority of key acquisitions the last two off-seasons have been defensive, and they are paying off handsomely. Shula’s young defense had allowed an average of less than 10 points over the month leading into the Eagles game. They swung and missed on Colby Parkinson and Jonah Jackson, but with Higbee’s return and the emergence of 6th round rookie center Beaux Limmer, those losses were pretty well mitigated. Regardless of whether or not Kupp returns in 2025, I think the Rams need to invest in a top-flight WR2. Tee Higgins would be the top of my list, and I think he is the picture-perfect X for McVay’s offense, where Demarcus Robinson has played the last two years. 6th round rookie WR Jordan Whittington showed enough to me that I would be willing to give him the opportunity to be WR3 behind those two. This is why I would ideally like Kupp to return. He could either be WR3 with Whittington spelling him and Puka, or Kupp knows the offense well enough to be able to be the primary backup to any position, and I think Whittington would be a great F, where Kupp has played for so many years.
I also think the Rams would do well to find a more explosive running back. Kyren Williams is a very good back, but he’s not great. Fumbling has been an issue, long before the Eagles game, and his lack of top end speed prevents him from breaking any truly long runs. So many of his runs that go for 12-20 yards would be touchdowns for many other top running backs, but he just gets caught. He has one year left on his rookie deal, and the Rams just spent a valuable 3rd round pick on his clone in Blake Corum. I think they would do well to take a more explosive back in the draft and aim for a lite version of Montgomery and Gibbs in Detroit. Maybe you keep Williams, pair him with that explosive back this year, and let him walk next year, but the Rams seem to trade guys going into their final years if they know they aren’t going to re-sign them.
I would also do whatever it took to draft Penn State’s Tyler Warren. Warren is a picture-perfect tight end for McVay, as he blocks and receives very well. He’s not the explosive runner after the catch that Bowers is, but he is a positive asset in the run and pass game. I have seen some comparisons to Kittle, and based on the few Penn State games I’ve watched, I can see the comp. I think Warren would allow McVay to explore more of the 12 personnel he implemented this year with Higbee back too, and that would help mitigate a less effective WR3, whether it’s an aging Kupp or second year day 3 draft pick in Jordan Whittington.
They don’t have much in the way of free agents I think need to be brought back. You won’t see many people online say that, but they have been really good throughout the Snead/McVay era about drafting and developing replacements for non-star players. For example, DT Bobby Brown was a nice replacement for A’Shawn Robinson following the Super Bowl. Last year, they spent a 6th round pick on Tyler Davis, a run-stuffing DT from Clemson. They have their 4 man pass rush in Kobie Turner, Braden Fiske, Byron Young, and Jared Verse. They just need a run stopping DT for base downs. I fully expect that to be Tyler Davis because that’s just how they do things. The key free agent that has to be retained is LT Alaric Jackson. He has been an above average LT after coming into the league as a UDFA, and with some of the other needs to be filled, letting him walk then spending a first round pick on a rookie tackle doesn’t make much sense to me.
CONCLUSION
A very different newsletter this week, but our off-season ones will begin soon! Also, be on the lookout for the return of our clinics exclusive to paid subscribers!